The Next 3 Months of Pakistani Politics

Photo Credit: SANA News Agency

To say that Pakistan is a happening place would be an understatement, we are a country that has a tsunami, flood and even an earthquake coming but thankfully all this is just coming in the political sense. With the political situation changing so rapidly it is no wonder that our media is mostly in frenzy leaving us the public with no clear indication as to what is going on and where we are headed in the next few months. In this blog I intend to actually do exactly that, provide some clarity as to where we are going and how we are getting there.

So to start of let me make it very clear that the Government is going nowhere. I know that you keep hearing through the media and other sources that may be there is something going and that very soon this government is going to wrap up, but it is not going to happen. Yes the PM has been asked to appear in court but that has been done in the past as well and worst case scenario would be that the PM would be forced to resign. That does not mean that the NA will fold. Instead what is going to happen is this, Senate elections are going to happen on time and once they are done, the government is going to give a date for elections and dissolve the Parliament. About a week ago PML N the major opposition party agreed in principle that they would not do anything that jeopardizes the Senate elections based on the promise that the Government would fold immediately afterwards. Now the deal is, once the government wraps up, Elections are to be held in about 90 days. That means given that the Senate election is done and the new Senators take oath, the time would be around middle of March. The Government would ideally be dissolved around middle of April and then the Election date would be set for something like middle of August or September.

Photo Credit: Reuters

This settlement works out for everyone for different reasons. Firstly the Senate is elected based on provincial seats. That means that if you have enough provincial seats, you get to have proportional seats in the Senate. The biggest beneficiaries of this are the PPP and PML N who gain substantial seats in the Senate. Holding the Senate insures that even if the General Elections are a mess and PPP along with PML N were to suffer losses, they would still hold one house of the Parliament. This also means that the Chairman Senate would be a compromise candidate who will be acceptable to all parties involved and for that the name being thrown around is that of Aitezaz Ahsan, someone who is acceptable to everyone. In case you did not know, the Chairman Senate is also the Acting President by default. So if there were to be a situation where the President was to be forced out, a PPP person would still hold the office.

Secondly, NADRA cannot complete the voter list updating by the court appointed date of Feb 23^rd. There is absolutely no way that they can manage that and there is a very good chance that the whole exercise would have to be extended for a few more months.  This means that no matter what happens, the voter lists are not going to be ready and that elections would be held until they are.

Photo Credit: The Nation

Thirdly, the opposition has been working overtime to form alliances to ensure that the PPP led coalition does not come back in elections. Opposition parties fear that if the government were to be forcibly sent home in the next few months, they would go out as Political Martyrs and this would just help them bounce back in the elections. The logical way for the opposition to operate is to let the PPP led coalition burn out and call for elections on their own as that way the whole Political Martyr card does not get used. This also gives time for the PML N led opposition to cobble together an alliance with other parties namely JI and Baloch Nationalists.  That alliance would have a very strong chance of doing well in the elections as it would be able to cast a wider net nationwide. But the sticking point in that whole negation is the Munawwar Hasan of the JI who refuses to sit with PML N and instead wants his party to sit with PTI. But JI the party refuses to sit with PTI and instead wants to join hands with the PML N, so there is an internal debate going on in the JI with regards to which side they wish to proceed to. Based on the Qazi-Nawaz meeting a couple of days ago, it looks like that the JI is going to go with PML N. In addition to this alliance in the making, the PTI is continuing its policy of taking in anyone and everyone and right now they are involved in a prolonged negotiation with the PML Like Minded group who have left the Q league and are being refused entry in the PML N. The sticking point there seems to be that PTI does not want them to join as a group but to negotiate their terms on individual basis like Qasuris and the Legharis but the PML Like Minded refuse to negotiate individually. That whole situation will pan out soon as they have nowhere else to go and PTI knows that.

Lastly, the Supreme Court is going over a few high profile cases at the moment and these cases are going to reach their climax around March. All the Commissions are going to start wrapping up their investigations around that period of time too. A number of credible sources maintain that in nearly all cases the PM would bear the brunt and would probably be declared unfit for office. He would resign and face the courts while the PPP led coalition elects an alternative PM.

The next 3 months are going to be very interesting. The path I have spelled out above is the one that is eventually going to be followed. Now that you have a good idea of what is going to be happening, enjoy the media frenzy and the whole political show.